From the wreckage of the week just past

#GarageGate, Biden's Alphabet Friends, Coup vs Coverup vs Both, Kamala's impeachment insurance, and the possibility of President McCarthy

• #GarageGate continues to be a festering sore for the Biden Presidency.

• The DoJ and FBI are firmly in the Big Guy’s corner, but the Secret Service might not be.

• Coup? Coverup? Why can’t it be both?

• Just what is in those documents, and where will the trail lead? We don’t know-yet.

• If the trail leads to Ukraine, who will be Kamala’s “impeachment insurance”? Newsome? Hillary?

• President McCarthy? Not likely, but (theoretically) possible.

  

Since Monday’s #GarageGate Substack, we’ve learned that DoJ decided it was okay to let Biden’s personal lawyers look for more classified docs scattered about, without any supervision. After all, they were cooperating, and it’s not like it’s an active criminal investigation right now. This way the FBI could come in later without worrying about anything interfering with that investigation, like more classified documents or other bits of evidence laying around.

We also learned that Hunter had access to Biden’s “locked up” Corvette (and the garage where the classified docs were in boxes) while he was living there in 2017. We don’t know if Joe’s aware that Hunter was taking his lady friends out for rides in Daddy’s ‘Vette when the Big Guy wasn’t home. Think somebody should tell Joe? Naaaaah.

So, we didn't see any more documents turned over this week. The FBI’s absolute faith in Biden’s attorneys might seem a bit far fetched, but considering the DoJ and administration decided to hide the whole mess from the American people (until it leaked) it’s really not.

At least Biden has “no regrets” about the documents discovery being hidden until after the midterms because “there’s nothing there”—a decision that was based on “a futile hope that the incident could be quietly disposed of without broader implications for Mr. Biden or his presidency.” Unfortunately for Old Joe, it didn’t work. A recent poll showed more people thought his handling of the docs was “inappropriate” rather than “appropriate” by a nearly 3:1 ratio. Between that and his chronically anemic approval ratings of mid-30’s to mid-40’s, he doesn’t have a lot of cushion against bad news like this. And, oddly enough, the Secret Service actually DOES have some records of “regular” visitors to the Delaware residence. Wonder what the House will make of them?

Are Biden’s handlers hoping the FBI can stumble and bumble enough to get Biden out of this mess, à la Hillary Clinton? Probably. Will it work? Mmm…maybe. For right now the wagons are circled and no one’s broken ranks. Assuming Special Council Robert Hur sticks to the script, Biden’s probably okay from that end. However, the House isn’t going to be an easy sell that this is just a nothing-burger. Intelligence committee Chair Mike Turner (R-OH) asked for a national security damage assessment last week, and as of this writing he still hadn’t gotten it. For only 20 pages or less (so we’re told) of material, that seems a bit slow for “nothing”. The House Oversight committee wants a piece of the action, and who knows who else will want it?

Monday I discussed the theory that this is a coup by a faction within the Democratic Party to remove Biden before 2024, and that’s still possible. It’s also possible this is just a plain old coverup, albeit badly done. How can we tell which it is? At this point I don’t think we can say one way or another.

There’s a third possibility: that it’s both coup and a coverup. The initial CBS leak that kicked it off could have just been the opening move of the coup. The coverup could have been pushed—and continued—to build up pressure inside and outside the administration. The longer this botched coverup drags on, the worse it will be when the balloon finally pops.

If that balloon pop is from another cache of documents mysteriously appearing (Rose Law Firm billing records, anyone?), that’ll be a sign somebody’s decided to call a “Coup Excuse”! Yes, that’s an inside joke for anyone who’s ever played Junta. Welcome to the beautiful la Republica de los Bananas, Biden Family edition!

If Special Council Hur or one/more House committees finds something worth chasing about the “10% for the Big Guy” money trail—especially if that trail goes through Ukraine, as Dan Bongino and President Trump have both noted—then coup vs coverup will be a nonissue. Biden will be out of office, either by impeachment, resignation, 25th Amendment or Suddenly. Hunter will likely not go back to rehab, but will go away, buh bye. Kamala will be President until she can be impeached, resigned, 25th’d or Suddenly’d. Because really, do any Democrats honestly want President Kamaladingdong to be their standard-bearer in 2024?

President McCarthy?

Here’s one interesting thought: since a vacancy in the office of Vice President must be confirmed “by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress” (per the 25th Amendment), it’s possible Speaker Kevin McCarthy could get a promotion and a new office without any corners.

Granted, that’s a very long shot, but it’s possible. We’ve just seen how obstreperous the House Republicans can get when the mood is upon them. Kamala has been Joe’s impeachment insurance, but she doesn’t have anyone to be that insurance for her. Gavin Newsome, the current favorite for the Dems in ‘24, would be just the opposite, and she knows it. Michelle Obama might be even worse for Kamala.

Of course, if Kamala’s feeling suicidal, she could always nominate Hillary to be Veep. What would happen next might not be painless, but it’d certainly be quick.

A House voting along party lines could keep the Veep’s seat empty while Kamala’s clock runs out. As far as I know there’s no rule saying you have to have a Vice President to impeach a President. The House would have to quickly move on Articles of Impeachment, and the Senate would have to vote to impeach by a 2/3 majority, which is highly unlikely. That would leave us with President McCarthy, and a whole new political ballgame for 2024.

The only way it could realistically happen would be for the Uniparty to realize what an absolute disaster Kamala would be as the Democrat’s Presidential nominee in ‘24. Rather than risk even a few months of a RINO President, it’s likely they’d mummify Kamala in bubble wrap, never let her go further than the Rose Garden, and primary her out of politics altogether.

That being said, as the incumbent President, McCarthy would immediately be the RINO establishment’s choice for the 2024 nomination. And, if he continued to act like the born-again Freedom Caucus member he’s been playing the last couple of weeks, he’d get some MAGA votes, too. There are a lot of anti-vax MAGA voters who aren’t too happy with Trump right now, so that’s also in the mix.

If the Uniparty can’t block Trump from running, having him go against an incumbent President McCarthy in the primaries might be the establishment’s best option to destroy Trump, weaken McCarthy, and make it easier for Newsome or Lady Obama to steal win the Presidency in 2024.

In other words, the Speaker-to-President McCarthy scenario only plays out if the establishment’s fear and loathing of Donald J. Trump overrides every other consideration. As I said, it’s a very long shot, but these are the times we live in.

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