WTF, Russia? Part 2

Everybody speaks out, the Bongino Rule is in play, and Sundance gives us a critical piece of the puzzle.

Yesterday morning I wrote about the WTF moments we all had during last weekend’s kinda coup in Russia. In the interim, both of the major players (Putin and Prigozhin) have spoken out, giving their own spin to what happened.

Prigozhin released an audio message saying that “The purpose of the march was to prevent the destruction of PMC Wagner and to bring to justice those who, through their unprofessional actions, made a huge number of mistakes during the special military operation.” He also said that the march towards Moscow stopped “to prevent bloodshed” following reconnaissance of the area, and that he felt that their demonstration had been sufficient.

In other words, it was about to get real, and I’d already made my point, so I called the whole thing off.

Putin gave a televised speech that not only showed he remains firmly in charge, but was almost conciliatory to the Wagner rank and file, who he described as “patriots” who “were lied to.” He offered them three choices: join the regular Russian military, go home to their families, or go to Belarus. Remember that last part, it’ll be important later.

Not exactly the scorched earth, body bag-filled approach many expected or hoped for, but it’s what we got.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov—who is a serious statesman, unlike, well, ANYBODY in Dementoid Joe’s administration—weighed in with a critique of Washington’s flip-floppy attitude to regime changes, saying “Where the West is happy with the current government, in such situations no protest can be legitimate. But where the government doesn’t reflect the interests of the hegemon and is pursuing the national interests, in those cases we see various unlawful forces are being stimulated [to attack the authorities],” and like other coups in the past “met with a different response on the part of the US, depending on who was in power and who was trying to carry out the coup.”

Yeah, they’re still sore about the 2014 Maidan coup in Kiev, where John McCain was cheering on the neo-Nazis and Vicky Nuland was handing out motivational cookies (and maybe Captagon out the back of the US Embassy?—for some reason any reference to that has disappeared from the internet. I’m sure it’s nothing to worry about. It’s not like Captagon is a jihad pill or anything…oh, wait. It actually IS the “jihad pill’!). But, if you want to refresh your memory (while you still can), I’d recommend this summary at Conservapedia, paying special attention to the players involved. There’s also Oliver Stone’s thoughts on it, the leaked Nuland call that was in all the papers, and how events in 2014 led us to where we’re at now (here, here and here).

Do I really need to advise you NOT to try ordering Captagon online? That would be a spectacularly bad idea, and not just because it’s illegal. Unless, of course, you’re with an above-the-law three-letter Agency with a bunch of disposable minions you want hopped up to the point of feeling no pain, thinking they’re invincible, with massive sleep deprivation and psychotic flashes on the side? In that case, knock yourself out. Just do me a favor—let me know where and when your minions will be “peacefully protesting” so I can be somewhere else, far, far away. Like, in another state, far away. Maybe two states away—that stuff is bad news, totally don’t recommend.

So, yeah; it’s totally silly for the Russians to still be sore about a Neo-Clown/CIA color revolution in Moscow’s backyard nearly a decade ago. They should just get over it, am I right?

Except this is Russia, where they hold a grudge until it dies if old age, then have it stuffed and mount it on the wall. Kinda like we do in the Deep South, as a matter of fact. Maybe somebody ought to remind the Ivy League Neo-Clowns about that? Like our current Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs—Victoria Jane Nuland. And those of you who’ve read Beyond MAGA know how I feel about John McCain. (Spoiler alert: Hate ‘em!)

China, of course, put in their two cents worth, saying, “This is Russia’s internal affairs,” and “as a friendly neighbor and a comprehensive strategic partner of coordination in the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity.”

Translation: Putin’s our guy but this is NOT REPEAT NOT our problem. Please don’t make it our problem. You won’t like it if we have to step in. Thank you.

Dan Bongino did a great segment on the Russian coup on his Monday show (it’s from ~11:15–20:00). He agrees with me that it makes no sense, but then he applies the Bongino Rule: in situations like this, always wait 24-72 hours before making up your mind about an issue. The reason? Because there’s always going to be too much fake news being put out in the rush to be first.

Bongino’s absolutely right about this. In fact, the first segment of Monday’s show is about his own experience with fake news, in the same “rush to print” situation.

Bongino’s take on what happened with Prigozhin is that Putin had his people embedded in Wagner’s inner circle, too. It wasn’t just Western intelligence (read CIA) that knew what was up. Bongino speculates that Putin’s guys were all-in with Prigozhin *wink wink nudge nudge* until he actually moved on Rostov-on-Don or Moscow. Then, poof! All Prigozhin’s promised support vanished into thin air, and then the President of Belarus called and…over, done, it’s vodka time!

Bongino’s formulation meshes well with mine, but there’s one more piece of the puzzle I found at The Last Refuge. Sundance has a good source in St. Petersburg who’s been prepping him for something to happen, and now it has. He gives an excellent short history of Prigozhin’s life that explains much, and reveals an incident that happened in April that gave Prigozhin a reason to be miffed at both Putin and the CIA. Sundance asked this not be shared, saying it’s for his readers only, but it’s NOT behind a paywall (good on him!!!) and anyway, you need to read it for yourself anyway.

BTW, I highly recommend all of Sundance’s work. Read it and you’ll see why. Feel free to tell him I said so.

One more thing, and we’ll put it all together: as a Psychiatrist, I can say with certainty that there is NEVER just one reason why people do things. There are always multiple motivations, both conscious and unconscious; there are always multiple agendas, hopes, wants, desires and fantasies driving every action. Most of them we can only speculate about, or infer them from “tells” and other signs. Likewise, there’s never just a single result from an action—like the Russian’s simmering irritation about Kiev, 2014.

So, what do we have? Keeping in mind the Bongino Rule, and within its limits, here’s what seems likely: Prigozhin is a Russian to the bone. He’s clawed his way up from nothing to Great wealth and his own 25,000 man army. He’s fought hard, and won big for Mother Russia in Ukraine, but gotten little respect from the Defense Minister and General Staff. They’ve even all but ordered him to disband Wagner, or else. He’s been an ally of Putin, and done several things Putin wanted done with deniability, but to what end. Most recently, he’s had a reason to be miffed at both Putin and the CIA, along with the Russian military brass.

Now he has a chance to stick it to everybody, starting with a big, fat incentive from the Neo-Clowns (as I said yesterday). He’s being encouraged to do this by lots of people, so as soon as the check clears, he rolls—only to find that all of his friend’s phones now go straight to voice mail. He gets a little way out of Rostov-on-Don and a few helicopters and a plane or two attack, and his scouts report a significant force forming up in front of him. He’s facing a real battle, not against Nazi hohols but fellow Russians…and then the phone rings. It’s Belarus calling, with a deal, and boom!

The One Day War was over.

Coincidentally, there’s been no word about whether or not Prigozhin has actually arrived in Belarus…or just how many of his troops will go with him. Or, as may be, are being repositioned in Belarus just because Belarus is lovely this time of year (see this map for why this may be important later—see, I told you to remember the Belarus part!):

So, there you have it. Neither Bongino nor I know for sure what happened. Sundance may know more by now, from his St. Petersburg source. We’ll see. None of us can really be sure what’s going to happen in the coming days and weeks. But, we can all be sure of this:

If China has to step in and unf*k this mess, ain’t NOBODY gonna be happy!

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