WTF, Russia? Seriously?

22 hours of ‘to coup, or not to coup?’ has everyone confused.

Was this weekend’s fun and games in Russia truly a “toxic cocktail of jealousy, rivalry and ambition” that “has been months, if not years, in the making”, or was it something else? Because, seriously, the Wagner “coup” was so weird in every single way imaginable that nobody seems to understand it.

Let’s start with the major players:

Vladimir Putin—President of all the Russians

Yevgeny Prigozhin—former “caterer” and founder/leader of mercenary group Wagner

Sergei Shoigu—Russian Defense Minister

Valery Gerasimov—Chief of the General Staff of Russian Armed Forces

As to what happened, there’s the BBC version (the “toxic cocktail” version that goes into the long history of conflict between Prigozhin and Shoigu & Gerasimov) and the Russia Today timeline as the WTFever it was happened. If you want a decent analysis of what actually might have gone on with some very good speculations about other possibilities, Simplicius is the best I’ve found thus far. Were there casualties? Yes, but not nearly as many as I’d expect from a legitimate coup attempt. That’s not to minimize the lives that were lost, but compared to the meat grinder Ukraine has been, and in comparison to other abortive coups…

Nothing about how this thing played out makes sense. It’s just not adding up, and my BS detector has been going off all weekend.

For all his flaws and foibles, Prigozhin isn’t stupid—but this whole thing reeks of stupid. Yes, there’s a LOT of bad blood and worse language between Prigozhin & Shoigu/Gerasimov, including a transparent attempt to strike at Wagner directly with new Ministry of Defense contracts—the ‘sign or get lost’ by July 1 kind—that are almost certainly a prime factor in the timing. Then there’s this bit about how US intelligence knew about Wagner’s plan in advance, and did nothing to warn Putin. That’s understandable, since The Narrative(tm) these last many months has been that Putin is worse than Satan and Hitler and Trump all rolled into one.

Okay, that’s a slight exaggeration. According to The Narrative(tm), NO ONE is, ever has been, or can possibly be worse than Donald Trump and his wicked Ultra MAGA followers. Putin’s still pretty bad, though; he’s cut Hunter’s Ukraine take, and the 10% for “the Big Guy”, by a lot!

Here’s something we do know: apparently Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko made the calls that brought the whole thing to a screeching halt, and sent the Wagner troops back to the front to keep Ukraine’s great summer offensive from doing anything offensive. Given the great offensive has been a huge sputtering FAIL thus far, I’m not seeing a whole lot changing there, coup or not.

So, was this whole thing a setup? Did that $6.2 billion Pentagon accounting error go straight into Prigozhin’s account? Was this a green color revolution (by greenbacks)? Did the Neo-Clowns try a big check Hail Mary to get Wagner to depose Putin for them?

I have no idea, but that would explain a lot, including the abrupt stopping. Prigozhin may very well have cashed the check, took a quick road-trip to Rostov-on-Don, gone up the road a little way towards Moscow, then literally taken the money and run (to Belarus), laughing at Clown World all the way, the instant the money moved into a different account.

Oh, and US Secretary of State Blinken ran his cake hole about it, but nobody bothered paying attention ‘cause he’s a nonentity that nobody cares about, anyway. Yawn.

I think it’s unlikely some of the more outlandish speculations are true. My personal favorite is that a bunch of “Ukrainians” with American accents and dark sunglasses “acquired’ some Cesium-137, made a truly nasty IED and were on their way to Moscow to make a big, long-lasting mess. The Wagner “coup” justified concentrating forces south of Moscow (and blocking the roads) into an anvil that Wagner was the hammer those “Ukrainians” were smacked against. Once the dirty bomb was intercepted, the op was called off and everybody went home.

Is that scenario possible? Yep. Is it likely? Mmmmmm…probably not. But, given the overall craziness of this entire incident and paucity of facts, it has the benefit of fitting the observed facts. So, who knows? If it did happen like that, it was a lovely bit of maskirovka, and well played as such by Putin et. al. By the Cesium Clowns, not so much.

The bottom line is that nobody on this side of the Pacific seems to know just WTF happened in Russia this weekend, or how much vodka was involved. Somehow, I doubt we’ll ever know the real story.

All we know for sure is that somehow, some way, this will mean another few pallets of US tax dollars will be sent to Ukraine to do…something. Just because Ukraine! Democracy! Freedom! Adrenochrome! Or something….

FYI, Simplicius has three polls about the coup on his Substack, if you want to share your thoughts there. They’re at the bottom, and will only be up for another 2-3 days, I think.

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